The single polycrystalline fraction has been a focus of concern in the photovoltaic industry. At the end of 2017, a report from SPV, a US solar market research company, showed that in 2017, single crystal cells (components) accounted for 49% and polycrystalline silicon (components) for 46%. “In 2017, the output of solar modules was 97.7 GW, of which shipments were 93.8 GW and installed capacity was 95.1 GW. The market share of single crystal modules was 49%, and polycrystalline was 46%,†the SPV report said. However, once the data is released, it raises questions in the industry. After investigating more than 10 PV industry chain companies, financial brokers, and industry organizations, PVInfolink, an authoritative analysis institution for the photovoltaic industry, stated that “in 2017, the proportion of single polycrystalline silicon modules is about 3:7â€, and polycrystalline technology is still the mainstream of the photovoltaic market. This conclusion is very different from the SPV data. PVInfolink further stated that single- and multi-crystalline enterprises have corresponding expansion plans in 2018, in which the market share of single crystals is expected to increase, but the pattern is still dominated by polycrystalline silicon, supplemented by single crystals. “According to the data provided by all parties, the single-crystal ratio given by the SPV report is not accurate.†According to Linlin Rong, an analyst of PVInfolink, “The proportion of photovoltaic production in 2017 should be more than 70% of polycrystalline silicon, single Crystal is about 30%. In 2018, the proportion of single crystal components has risen to about 37%." “The share of single crystal modules in the second half of 2017 has declined, and the proportion may increase slightly in the second half of 2018.†Ma Yi, vice president of PV billion, also has doubts about SPV's data. Three Algorithms Push Back Market Ratio How can a single polycrystalline market share be estimated in 2017? Some analysts believe that there are at least three calculation methods to push down the market share of single and polycrystalline. The first way to predict is to push backwards from the total output of “silicon wafers†supplied to batteries and components. Lin Yurong made a corresponding calculation demo. She said: "In 2017, the total global shipment volume of components was about 103 GW. Several major manufacturers shipped roughly as much as between 19GW and 20GW of GCL polysilicon wafers, and 77% of Jinkee's nearly 6GW wafer production. Crystal, Rongde polysilicon film has about 4GW, Artes and Trina Solar are also mainly based on polysilicon film production capacity." According to a recent report by Artes, the company's external and internal procurement of silicon wafers totaled 2.57 GW in 2016, both of which are polycrystalline. In 2017, polycrystalline silicon was still at the core. According to the previous Longji share disclosure, in 2017, single-crystal modules shipped about 4.5 GW, combined with the current situation of Longji “silicon self-sufficiency and upstream and downstream supply each account for half of the company’s outputâ€. Lin Yurong predicts: “on a single crystal wafer , Longji shares shipped about 9GW a year, Central shares shipped about 6.2GW." The second way of forecasting is to look at the single and polycrystalline proportions of the domestic power station procurement side. According to Gong Yongfeng, an analyst at CITIC Securities, “At present, the Chinese market is the world's largest demand for components, which can be considered as a trend indicator for the global PV market.†From the 2017 procurement trend of the five major power companies in China, the The pattern of supplemented by primary and single crystals has been established. "It is expected that the pattern of polycrystals will continue to be higher than that of single crystals in 2018, and the single polycrystalline ratio is expected to be 35:65." The last one is calculated from the downstream component shipments. At present, major polycrystalline shipment companies include Jinko Energy, Zhengtai Group, GCL Integration, Suzhou Tenghui, Dongfang Risheng, Trina Solar, Artes, Suntech, Baoding Yingli and others. Monocrystalline module manufacturers have Longji Leye, and companies that support single-poly crystal technology include Jingao, Yijing Optoelectronics, and Hanwha. Looking at the two major component camps, the proportion of polycrystalline chips is high, and shipments of single crystals are slightly inferior. Single poly technology turns round The monopoly market share is only a comparison of the current situation of the two countries, and the technological progress behind the single polycrystal needs special attention: the technological changes between the two are in progress, and it plays an irreplaceable role in the future market development. Promote the role. The photovoltaic industry follows Moore's Law. With the upstream and downstream industry chains expanding at full speed and the rapid advancement of photovoltaic technology, new products with higher cost performance have been continuously introduced. According to data released on January 2nd-5th by solarzoom, the polycrystalline silicon module is at 2.7-2.75 yuan/watt, and the single crystal module is at 2.7-2.9 yuan/watt. The overall price is in the down channel. . The single-chip technology rally drastically reduces the cost of photovoltaic modules. Single crystal company earlier entered the diamond wire cut single crystal silicon wafer, the cost of the first to reduce; and diamond wire cut polycrystalline technology is popular, the cost will also be further reduced. From the current feedback from a number of downstream battery component manufacturers, the efficiency ratios of polycrystalline PERC technology and single crystal PERC technology are basically the same. With the addition of black silicon technology, polycrystalline silicon has an efficiency increase of 0.3%-0.4%. In 2018, GCL-Poly's silicon wafer products will increase by 0.5%-0.6%. Mol Solar reported that in May 2016, Jinko Energy announced that its high-efficiency polycrystalline battery with PERC and black silicon technology has entered volume production stage, and the mass production efficiency will increase to over 20.5% in the future. In November 2016, China Energy announced that its high-efficiency polycrystalline battery with PERC+RIE black silicon technology will achieve mass production, the average conversion efficiency will exceed the 20% mark, and the polycrystalline module power will exceed 285 watts. In August 2017, GCL's integrated dry-black polysilicon PERC battery with independent research and development has achieved an average mass production efficiency of more than 20.3% and a maximum efficiency of 20.8%. In October 2017, Artes mentioned in an internal report that “Industrial conversion efficiency of mass-produced batteries is between 15% and 18% for polysilicon cells and 18%-20% for CZ cells. TES advanced production line adopts nano wet black silicon technology to obtain micro suede light trapping structure, improving the photoelectric conversion efficiency by 0.3%, making the average photoelectric conversion efficiency of polycrystalline silicon cells reach 18.7%, representing a higher polysilicon battery production line at present. The company's conventional single-crystal cell has a photoelectric conversion rate of 19.9%, and adopts advanced PERC technology with a photoelectric conversion rate of 20.8%.†Yijing Optoelectronics also publicly stated recently that the company currently mass-produces single crystal PERC efficiency. It reached 21.4%-21.8%, and the polycrystalline PERC efficiency was in the range of 19.7%-20.3%. A number of companies are working on single crystals at the same time According to the report of Wang Shengsheng, the technical director of Artes, the unit silicon ingot consumption of single crystal pulling rod is about 75Kwh/Kg, and the monthly capacity of single furnace is about 3 tons, while the unit power consumption of polycrystalline ingot is about 12Kwh/Kg. The furnace monthly production capacity is about 9 tons. The difference in crystal growth is the main factor in the cost difference of single polycrystalline products, and the process characteristics of single crystal pull rods make it difficult to reduce the power consumption. At present, GCL-Poly has produced more than 400 million polysilicon wafers per month. The efficiency of PERC cells after superimposing black silicon is 20.5%. The efficiency of some single crystals can be 21.5%, with an average of 21.3%. . Over the years, the efficiency difference between single polycrystals has been maintained at about 1%, and the technical level of both is advancing simultaneously. According to the survey, most market players uphold the view that “many companies have both single crystals and polycrystalline silicon, which infiltrate each other and promote each other.†Wang Xiaosheng said, “The market share of single polycrystalline silicon will eventually It's up to the market to decide instead of policy.†In addition to Artes, Giga Optoelectronics and Jinkee Energy, the single-crystal and multi-parallel companies include giants such as GCL, JA Solar, and Trina Solar. "In 2018, single-crystal production capacity in photovoltaic companies will continue to expand." Lin Rongrong said, "In terms of polycrystalline production expansion, it is only the conversion of the mortar line to the diamond line and the purchase of a new slicer. There will be more than 10GW of production capacity.†Longji, Tianhe, and Artes also have their own expansion plans. Source: China Energy News Screw Terminal Connector,Pcb Screw Terminal,Screw Terminal Block Connector,Screw Type Terminal Blocks Cixi Xinke Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.cxxinke.com