The unit price of polysilicon rose to two years and the demand for new high downstream increased

Due to the impact of Japan's earthquake and high shipments of photovoltaic cells, the current unit price of solar-grade polysilicon has reached 79 U.S. dollars per kilogram. However, if Italy's electricity price subsidies are cut in the second half of this year and polysilicon plants expand production in a timely manner, polysilicon long-term orders and spot prices are expected to fall.

Polysilicon prices rose Bloomberg New Energy Finance Corporation released a report on the 23rd, showing that polysilicon prices reached a new high in the past two years, 79 US dollars / kg. Since the second half of last year, polysilicon prices have continued to rise.

Polysilicon spot market prices are also climbing. In September last year, the spot price was about US$85/kg, up 40% from the previous three months. The spot price was $93/kg on March 20 this year.

A high-level company executive engaged in polysilicon production explained that polysilicon prices have continued to rise, and they are directly linked to Chinese government policies, the earthquake in Japan, and the increase in downstream demand.

On July 3, 2009, five ministries, including the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Commerce, jointly issued the Announcement on Adjusting the Catalogue of Imported Waste Management. The import of some silicon materials has been limited, so photovoltaic downstream companies can only be processed into silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells by relying on the supply of normal domestic and foreign silicon material manufacturers.

In addition, Japan's earthquake caused a certain degree of shortage of polysilicon at home and abroad.

Photovoltaic industry analyst Yang Yuxia told reporters that two polysilicon companies, such as Japan's SUMCO and NSKTEC, all stopped production due to the earthquake, while Taiwan’s AUO’s polysilicon plants in Sendai and Soma were also affected. “Japan’s polysilicon production accounts for global Third, it will definitely cause problems for polysilicon supply at this stage."

According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, the global installed capacity in 2011 will increase by more than 30% to 18G watts, which will allow polysilicon to have stable demand this year.

Insufficient capacity in China In addition, some companies are interested in controlling production, which may also be the reason for the rise in polysilicon prices.

Orient Securities researcher Zou Hui pointed out that China imported about 40,000 tons of polysilicon from its own property last year.

“Although the production capacity of some factories has obviously expanded, the output is not improving fast. For example, the output of Jiangxi LDK may increase by 2,000 tons within this year, and the proportion of Sichuan Xinguang Silicon and Yongxiang polysilicon are all increased from 10% to 20%. %, about 100 to 200 tons. If you only rely on GCL to raise about 3,000 tons during the year, it cannot meet the Chinese market supply."

Yang Yuxia also said that polysilicon companies enjoy higher gross margins and net profit margins, and polysilicon prices also have room to fall.

China Polysilicon’s first major plant GCL-Poly’s net profit margin was 27.74% and 23.76% in the fourth quarter and last year. However, in the same period, the net profit rate of the downstream wafer company LDK was only 16.21% and 11.81%. Some photovoltaic battery companies' annual net profit margin is only 10% or even lower.

"If some polysilicon companies raise the price very high, they will also be met with collective protests by downstream companies who can abandon part of the upstream companies that sell off-the-shelf and overpriced because of the large number of long-term orders. The companies have already felt that their processing gross profit is too low. Now they only do initial processing, that is, the silicon wafers are directly processed into silicon ingots, allowing other companies to slice, which will save a lot of labor, logistics and other costs.” Yang Xixia said.